Author: Donald Hislop
Co-Authors ⁄ Presenters: Crispin Coombs, Sarah Barnard, Stanimira Taneva
The Impact of AI and Robotics on Service and Knowledge Work: A Literature Review
One of the most significant recent technological developments concerns the application of robotics and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to jobs that up to now have been considered safe from automation. Described as the second machine age, analysts and commentators have forecast mass unemployment from the robotisation of a wide range of predictable, repetitive job roles (Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2016). What sets this change apart from previous technological revolutions, such as the automation of factory work in the 19th century, is the potential of robotisation to affect dramatic changes to the demand for skill-intensive, knowledge-based workers (Loebbecke & Picot 2015). This ‘robotification’ has generated considerable debate regarding the strategic impacts that widespread adoption of robots and AI could have on the nature of work, the demand for workers and wider society. For example, there is considerable disagreement regarding the strategic impacts of the widespread implementation of robots and AI on global employment levels. With respect to Machine Learning (ML) and mobile robotics technologies, Frey & Osborne (2013) suggest 47% of jobs in the United States economy could be eliminated. The Bank of England suggested that up to 15 million jobs in the UK could be lost through the utilisation of advanced robotics and automation technologies, with those most likely to be affected undertaking administrative, clerical and production work (Elliott 2015). However, Arntz et al. (2016) caution that these dramatic predictions are derived from analyses which assume that that entire job roles will be automated. Taking a task-based rather than a job-based analysis to data on OECD economies, Arntz et al. (2016) found that only 9% of jobs were potentially automatable. Further, historical experience indicates that the extent to which technological developments substitute for labour, can be counterbalanced by the way in which such developments complement and augment labour, creating increased demand for labour in new ways (Autor 2015). A valuable source of guidance for understanding these developments is current academic knowledge. Indeed, there are a considerable number of robotics and AI related research contributions that consider the potential impacts of these new technologies. However, these contributions lie in a wide range of scholarly disciplines that draw on contrasting research paradigms, theories, methods and perspectives. In an effort to make sense of the contemporary academic literature in this domain we examine the robotics and AI research relating to the automation of knowledge work that has been published between January 2011 and November 2016. Our occupational focus is on all forms of non-manual work, including white-collar office and administrative work, service work, and what can be labelled knowledge work. We exclude manufacturing work because automation is relatively mature in manufacturing contexts and the most significant developments associated with the work-related use of robotics and AI have been in occupations that have previously made little use of them (Brynjolfsson & McAfee 2011; Loebbecke & Picot 2015). This review provides several contributions to the literature. First, our review responds to calls to synthesise the current state of academic knowledge regarding robotisation of knowledge and service work across multiple disciplines (Loebbecke & Picot 2015). Second, from our sample analysis we identify that a large number of existing studies adopt proof of concept or experimental trial methods. We recommend that research is needed that investigates the workplace utilisation of these new technologies, to better understand the diverse impacts robotisation is having on work. Third, studies suggest that the social aspects of human-machine interaction are an important mediating factor for the successful realisation of the benefits from automation. We recommend that research is needed to better understand this relationship and its impact on the way in which automation technologies are utilised (Aleksander 2017). References Aleksander, I., 2017. Partners of humans: a realistic assessment of the role of robots in the foreseeable future. Journal of Information Technology, 32, pp.1–9 Arntz, M., Gregory, T. & Zierahn, U., 2016. The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD. Autor, D.H., 2015. Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation †. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), pp.3–30. Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A., 2016. The Second Machine Age - Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, WW Norton & Co. Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M., 2013. The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?, Oxford Loebbecke, C. & Picot, A., 2015. Reflections on societal and business model transformation arising from digitization and big data analytics: A research agenda. Journal of Strategic Information Systems, 24, pp.149–157